Local media
‘Armenia understands that they are losing the war’ – says former US Ambassador (AzVision)
The former co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group and former US Ambassador to Azerbaijan Matthew Bryza condemned the attacks on Ganja, Mingachevir, Absheron and other cities and regions of Azerbaijan by Armenia, calling them an international crime.
‘I do not know how the international community will react to this step by Armenia. I think it is a grave stage in the conflict. The Armenian side understands that they are losing the war. Armenia fires on civilians because they see Azerbaijan’s successful military operations. Azerbaijan’s unmanned aerial vehicles are of great potential. Armenia does not own the means to defend itself against unmanned aerial vehicles. The Azerbaijani Armed Forces are moving forward step by step, liberating Azerbaijani territories, such as Jabrayil, Fuzuli, and other territories towards the south. I think the Armenian side understands that if Azerbaijan continues operations, it will mean the end of the war and Azerbaijan will win. Therefore, Armenia intends to change the focus of the conflict, trying to force Baku to react through firing on civilians’, the former Minsk Group co-chair explained.
Bryza insists that Armenia’s goal is to involve the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) in the conflict and receive military assistance. ‘It is crucial that Azerbaijan does not retaliate in the same manner. Azerbaijan must continue its military operations legally and liberate its territories from occupation. I am sure that Baku will not react the same way as Yerevan’, he added.
He believes the international community does not criticize Armenia for occupying Azerbaijani territories because the situation is too complicated for the USA and Europe. ‘When the events in Nagorno-Karabakh started, people in the USA heard about them from the Armenian community living there. Neither the US nor Europe knew anything about it. It was the end of the 80s. They had heard all they knew from the Armenian community. The Armenians in the USA were saying that interesting events were unfolding in the former USSR, that their ‘brothers’ – the Armenians – wanted independence. It was all very interesting, so people paid attention. Armenia had prepared grounds to call Azerbaijan an ‘aggressor’. They had ‘earned’ the US Congressmen and European parliamentarians through giving them extensive amounts of money, thereby distorting history.
I believe Azerbaijan now has a great opportunity to right the wrong in history. The first step has already been taken. Both the Western people and mass media openly admit to those territories belonging to Azerbaijan. If Azerbaijan continues military operations one step after another, I believe they will be able to showcase their rightful position. The most important thing is that people know the truth.’
As for the next steps in the conflict, the diplomat believes that the military operations may stop in a few weeks. ‘Azerbaijan has a very clear goal – to recover its territories under occupation. It might be only several regions, or a larger portion, maybe Fuzuli, Jabrayil and Kalbajar. That I do not know. However, it is important to liberate the territories and have the Azerbaijanis return to their homes, keeping the Armenians living in Khankendi there. It is then important to negotiate to determine the final legal status of Karabakh. However, Armenia wants to alter the plan by bombing the civilian population of Azerbaijan. If Azerbaijan does not react similarly to Armenia, the plan I mentioned might remain in place, which will be rather successful for Azerbaijan.’
Bryza hopes that the negotiations can start in a few weeks’ time: ‘Someone should act as the mediator for this. The Minsk Group is difficult to imagine in this role because of the French president’s position. President Macron gives his full support to one of the sides, so I do not think the Minsk Group will act as the mediator. But someone must do it. As of now, we have Russia on Armenia’s side and Turkey on Azerbaijan’s.
I hope that Moscow will tell Yerevan in the coming days that the time has ripened to start negotiations. Meanwhile, Turkey will tell Baku that you have won, which makes it the perfect time to start a new phase in negotiations.’