Azerbaijan’s Patriotic War in the spotlight of Russian analytical information agency

After the statements of Russia and Iran, made on the same day regarding the new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, it became obvious that Yerevan, in its current military confrontation with Baku, relying on the firm support of Turkey, was in full political and military isolation.

This is stated in the Russian federal analytical information agency Rosbalt.

The agency recalls that Armenia and Russia are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), according to the charter of which a military attack on one of the countries of this block means an attack on its other members, which means military assistance from them. Moreover, in the first days of the new war, the media reported (however, refuted by Tehran) that Russia delivered three MiG-29 fighters to Armenia through Iranian airspace.

And now the Kremlin, apparently, has finally determined its position on the Karabakh issue. On October 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an interview with the Rossiya TV channel, specifically emphasized: “As you know, Armenia is a member of the CSTO, we have certain obligations to Armenia within the framework of this agreement. But the fighting, to our great regret, continues to this day, they are not being conducted on the territory of Armenia.”

The article also says that until recently, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to some extent also counted on the support of Iran, with which Yerevan has developed quite close trade, economic, and good neighborly relations in recent years. However, almost at the same time that Putin voiced the Kremlin’s position on the Karabakh issue, Iran did the same through Ali Velayati, assistant to the spiritual leader of the Islamic Republic on foreign policy issues, saying that “Armenia should return the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan.”

Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and expert on Iranian problems, told Rosbalt that such a sharp change in the position of official Tehran in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, firstly, is due to the fact that from 18 million to 25 million ethnic Azerbaijanis live in Iran, which is about a quarter of the 82 million population of this country. Secondly, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, is also an Azerbaijani by nationality, Sazhin notes.

There is another significant moment that complements the picture. The other day Georgia, which is friendly to Armenia, announced that it would stop passing military cargo through its territory and airspace for both belligerent states. For Armenia, which does not have a common border with Russia and access to the sea, all this means an almost complete blockade. Azerbaijan, on the contrary, has received and will continue to receive weapons and ammunition, for example, from Turkey, Israel, and not only from them.

Armenia's position in the new war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh is also aggravated by the fact that international law is not on its side in this matter. The UN clearly considers Karabakh a part of Azerbaijan. In fact, under these conditions, Yerevan can only rely on the pro-Armenian sympathies of some representatives of Western countries, and on its own army. However, on the battlefield, judging by the available data, things are not going well for Armenia either. Things at the front seem to be not in favor of the Armenian armed forces.

However, so far the "final victory of the Karabakh army", which the Armenian prime minister expects, is not visible. The point is not only that the poorer Armenia for many years could not spend as much money on the latest types of weapons as the much richer Azerbaijan spent on these purposes. As military expert, Pavel Felgenhauer noted in an interview with Rosbalt, “Armenia was preparing for the last war, relying more on the fighting spirit of its soldiers than on modern technology.

The results of this pre-war strategy are reverberating on the battlefield today. “Azerbaijan had technical superiority over Armenia before the war, and now it is just winning. For ten days, Azerbaijani troops have been holding the initiative, and this is serious. Armenians fail to intercept it. Attempts of counterattacks by the Armenian armed forces fail. They can’t even concentrate them, because their formations are under constant attack from Azerbaijani multiple rocket launchers, artillery, aviation, receiving information from drones,” the expert notes.

The fact that the situation on the battlefield is not in favor of Armenia is also evidenced by the fact that Nikol Pashinyan, it seems, for the first time in his entire premiership, spoke about the possibility of a compromise with Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh. Earlier, as we remember, he spoke in the spirit that "Karabakh is Armenia, a full stop."

Prime Minister Pashinyan, in case of defeat in this war, risks losing his post, Felgenhauer is sure, adding that, despite the fact that although he is not the only one to blame for the fact that his country was not ready for it, “he will have to answer for this ".

The expert suggests that now it is possible that a "war of cities" may begin, that is, the shelling of Yerevan and Baku, which can draw Russia into this war, which does not want to be drawn into it. Moscow, from his point of view, will be quite satisfied if Azerbaijan solves the Karabakh problem by force of arms, and as a result of this, the Pashinyan government falls in Armenia.

In these circumstances, the Armenians can only rely on themselves. However, their military-political capabilities are now seriously limited.

According to aviation expert Vadim Lukashevich, the use of modern Turkish and Israeli drones by Azerbaijan has created an advantage for its army in the current war with Armenia.

“Syria, Libya, and now Nagorno-Karabakh show that drones are generally changing the tactics of warfare, especially local ones. Karabakh is a war in a mountainous area and drones perform well here, at least in terms of suppressing air defense systems, armored vehicles, and so on,” Lukashevich told Rosbalt.

The expert added: “Armenia is retreating, Azerbaijan now has air supremacy, and this is very important for any military action in a modern war. In addition, drones are cheaper than an airplane or helicopters, their loss is not so critical, they can be used in large numbers (than manned aircraft), and they can fly in a coordinated manner. Today, drones are taking over the function of army attack aircraft. They are changing the face of war, especially regional warfare.”